Viewing government 'efficiency' improvements from the perspective of diagnostic measures of sensitivity, specificity, and cost functions:
New Essay
"The Intelligent AI Coin: A Thought Experiment"
Open Access here: https://seanfobbe.com/posts/2025-02-21_intelligent-ai-coin-thought-experiment/
Recent years have seen a concerning trend towards normalizing decisionmaking by Large Language Models (LLM), including in the adoption of legislation, the writing of judicial opinions and the routine administration of the rule of law. AI agents acting on behalf of human principals are supposed to lead us into a new age of productivity and convenience. The eloquence of AI-generated text and the narrative of super-human intelligence invite us to trust these systems more than we have trusted any human or algorithm ever before.
It is difficult to know whether a machine is actually intelligent because of problems with construct validity, plagiarism, reproducibility and transferability in AI benchmarks. Most people will either have to personally evaluate the usefulness of AI tools against the benchmark of their own lived experience or be forced to trust an expert.
To explain this conundrum I propose the Intelligent AI Coin Thought Experiment and discuss four objections: the restriction of agents to low-value decisions, making AI decisionmakers open source, adding a human-in-the-loop and the general limits of trust in human agents.
The Critical Role of Business Analysts in Shaping Strategic Decisions 
In today’s fast-paced business world, making informed strategic decisions is crucial for success. But who’s behind the data-driven insights that guide those decisions? Business Analysts!
https://indibloghub.com/post/the-impact-of-business-analysts-on-strategic-decision-making
New research evidences the possibility of training language #agents to behave as representatives of human agents, appropriately expressing the preferences of those individuals whom they stand for. What might this mean for the future of #DecisionMaking or even #democracy?
Decision-Making: Efficiency vs. Innovation?
At Tamer Nasr, we don’t believe in an “either-or” mindset. The best companies master both. Our technology-driven solutions empower businesses to optimize operations while fostering innovation that drives market leadership.
Where do you stand—efficiency, innovation, or both?
#DecisionMaking #Leadership #BusinessGrowth
@europesays @labplot@lemmy.kde.social @dataisbeautiful
Simply asking two primary questions to guide any analysis will lead to a better understanding of variation and more effective decision making:
Is the process currently stable?
Based on this knowledge, what type of action makes sense?
https://healthleadsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/understanding-variation26-years-later.pdf
In this paper Thomas Nolan, Rocco J. Perla and Lloyd Provost explain why correctly assessing #variation is fundamental to sound decisions.
Liberating Structures include many useful ways to improve meetings. But one of the "simplest" offered — "1-2-4-all" — has a big problem.
#facilitation #LiberatingStructures #problem #1-2-4-All #GroupDecisions #DecisionMaking
https://www.verywellmind.com/integrity-versus-despair-2795738
Did You Know? People tend to feel happier and more contentment when they could have their needs met throughout their life!
Stunning revelation. If only we could redistribute excess hoards of wealth back to most people!
We could start giving to people in abject poverty or 'absolute poverty'.
Then we could keep adding to people in abject poverty and people in asset poverty. (Asset poverty means someone could not sell enough assets to cover 3 months of expenses.)
Then we could keep adding to people in abject, asset, and relative poverty. And so on.
https://endpovertynowinc.org/blog/6-different-types-of-poverty/
How can I get over decision paralysis?
It goes beyond trusting your gut, but that is part of it.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91273388/how-can-i-get-over-decision-paralysis
I often times find it shocking how people almost always think everything is solved by reaching for the most popular solution.
This sums up my feelings around these atrocities:
‘People with power lacking knowledge back bad tools that are popular. The dissenters cannot get through to them.
This is 90% of problems in tech’
The Hidden Cost of Inaction
Companies lose millions annually by delaying process improvements, digital adoption, and revenue optimization. We help business leaders proactively identify and solve inefficiencies—before they become costly mistakes.
What’s one business decision you wish you made sooner? 
#BusinessStrategy #DecisionMaking #LeadershipInsights
The real promise of AI isn’t in doing our thinking for us,
but in giving us new tools to make smarter, faster, and more informed decisions.
The human mind is still the greatest asset.
Summer Institute on #BoundedRationality
#DecisionMaking in a Digital World | June 17–25, 2025 | MPIB, Berlin, Germany
https://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/research-centers/adaptive-rationality/summer-institute
#SocialRationality #EcologicalRationality
Making decisions across multiple strategies or treatments? Discover how Cochran’s Q Test cuts through the noise to reveal what works. Perfect for A/B/n testing, model evaluation, and more! #DataScience #Statistics #DecisionMaking https://jameshoward.us/2025/01/27/cochrans-q-test-a-simple-tool-for-complex-decisions
Attribute substitution is the decision-making heuristic that subsumes many others:
When faced with a hard question, answer an easier one instead.
https://www.experimental-history.com/p/how-to-feel-bad-and-be-wrong
In uncertain times, make drastic decisions by embracing adaptability, balancing risk & innovation with new investments, and prioritizing remote work to adapt to workforce changes.
https://www.inc.com/darialeshchenko/3-ways-to-make-drastic-decisions-in-uncertain-times/91110887 #BusinessStrategy #Uncertainty #Risk #Innovation #Leadership #DecisionMaking
Boosting decision-making skills: A new review article from researchers at the MPI for Human Development highlights the untapped potential of behavioral science for public policy
#Boosting #DecisionMaking #BehavioralScience
https://nachrichten.idw-online.de/2025/01/21/boosting-decision-making-skills
