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mrktws news-20% in a day 📉 What names will the next Pope take? Other <a href="https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/what-name-will-the-next-pope-take-URZ62RuOAd?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/what-name-will-the-next-pope-take-URZ62RuOAd?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

mrktws news-32% in a week 📉 S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day? <a href="https://manifold.markets/NeoMalthusian/sp-500-drops-8-by-april-2025-postli?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/NeoMalthusian/sp-500-drops-8-by-april-2025-postli?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

Manifold“[S]anat dünyanın bir yansıması ya da inşası değil, dünyayla kurulan ilişkileri açığa çıkaran ve yeniden düzenleyen bir süreçtir.” —Kerem Ozan Bayraktar’dan toplumsal bir sistem ve bir bilgi türü olarak sanat üzerine:<a href="https://manifold.press/gorundugu-gibi" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/gorundugu-gibi</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sanat" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#sanat</a>

mrktws news+41% in a week 📈 During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? May <a href="https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/during-which-month-will-tumbles-be?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/during-which-month-will-tumbles-be?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

Manifold“Ancak bana kalırsa Yeni Hollywood’un manifestosunu ortaya koyan ve böylece bu dönemi başlatan asıl film Peter Bogdanovich’in yönettiği ilk film olan 1968 yapımı Targets’tır.” —Murat Can Kabagöz’den Targets üzerine:<a href="https://manifold.press/yeni-hollywood-un-manifestosu-targets" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/yeni-hollywood-un-manifestosu-targets</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/MuratCanKabag%C3%B6z" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#MuratCanKabagöz</a>

Manifold“[B]aşkasının rotasında yürümek nasıl olur? O kişi için bu yolun nasıl bir anlamı olduğunu bilerek, yolla kurduğu ilişkinin zamanına giderek.” —Begüm Sönmez’den Tarihi Bıçakçı Han’da gerçekleştirilen Belki de Geçenler İçin sergisi üzerine:<a href="https://manifold.press/belki-de-gecenler-icin" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/belki-de-gecenler-icin</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Beg%C3%BCmS%C3%B6nmez" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#BegümSönmez</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sergi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#sergi</a>

mrktws news+37% in a day 📈 Will anyone in the leaked Houthi War chat be fired/resign by the end of April? <a href="https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/will-anyone-in-the-leaked-houthi-wa?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/will-anyone-in-the-leaked-houthi-wa?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

ManifoldBerk Özalp ve Hasan Cem Çal tarafından hazırlanan Wax Podcast’in yeni bölümünde konu, Alfonso Cuarón’un 2006 yapımı kültleşmiş filmi Children of Men. İnsan soyunun tükenmeye yüz tuttuğu gelecekteki bir zaman aralığında umudu söz konusu eden bir film.<a href="https://manifold.press/children-of-men" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/children-of-men</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/wax" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#wax</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/podcast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#podcast</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/HasanCem%C3%87al" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HasanCemÇal</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Berk%C3%96zalp" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#BerkÖzalp</a>

mrktws news+26% in a week 📈 Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat? <a href="https://manifold.markets/bens/will-anyone-be-fired-or-resign-for?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/bens/will-anyone-be-fired-or-resign-for?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

JMLR'Manifold Fitting under Unbounded Noise', by Zhigang Yao, Yuqing Xia.<a href="http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/21-0039.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">http://jmlr.org/papers/v26/21-0039.html</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/smoothness" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#smoothness</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/estimation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimation</a>

mrktws news-80% in a day 📉 Six months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on? Other <a href="https://manifold.markets/strutheo/a-year-after-jimmy-carter-dies-who?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/strutheo/a-year-after-jimmy-carter-dies-who?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

mrktws news+61% in a week 📈 Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025? <a href="https://manifold.markets/cash/will-pope-francis-cease-to-be-pope-623916036ab8?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/cash/will-pope-francis-cease-to-be-pope-623916036ab8?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

mrktws news-69% in a week 📉 Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025? <a href="https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-pope-francis-be-alive-through?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-pope-francis-be-alive-through?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

Manifold“[G]elecekte klinik aşamalarda kullanılan, hatta onaylanmış yapay zekâ destekli ilaçlara tanıklık edeceğiz.” —Ömer Sümer’den ilaç geliştirme sürecinde yapay zekânın yeri üzerine:<a href="https://manifold.press/ilac-gelistirmede-yapay-zeka" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/ilac-gelistirmede-yapay-zeka</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/%C3%96merS%C3%BCmer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ÖmerSümer</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yapayzeka" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#yapayzeka</a>

mrktws news-20% in a day 📉 Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026? <a href="https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

Manifold“Biz İstanbul’u hep fatihlerden, seyyahlardan, yazarlardan, Batılılardan dinledik.” —Eren Can Altay ve Merve Nur Ocaklı’dan, Rumeysa Boz’la İstanbul üzerine bir söyleşi:<a href="https://manifold.press/senin-istanbul-un" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/senin-istanbul-un</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/%C4%B0stanbul" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#İstanbul</a>

mrktws news+46% in a day 📈 Will Rohan Garg Qualify for MOP 2025? <a href="https://manifold.markets/fryan/will-rohan-garg-qualify-for-mop-202?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/fryan/will-rohan-garg-qualify-for-mop-202?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

ManifoldBu ay Ateş Alpar’ın fotoğraflarını kadrajladık: <a href="https://manifold.press/kadraj-ates-alpar-tas-kabuk-sessiz" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.press/kadraj-ates-alpar-tas-kabuk-sessiz</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Kadraj" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Kadraj</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#manifold</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ManifoldPress" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldPress</a>

mrktws news+34% in a day 📈 What will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term? Garcia returns to the US <a href="https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-sag?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-sag?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

mrktws news-41% in a day 📉 What will be true of o3? Context window >=500k tokens <a href="https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/what-will-be-true-of-o3?r=bWFya3R3c2U" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/what-will-be-true-of-o3?r=bWFya3R3c2U</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Manifold</a>

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