Mike Honey<p>With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.</p><p>The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, NY.9 (new), XEC.25.1, XFG and XFJ. </p><p>I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_7_2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_7_2</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_9" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_9</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/NB_1_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NB_1_8_1</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XFG" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XFG</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XFJ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XFJ</span></a><br>🧵</p>
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#xec
8 posts · 4 participants · 0 posts today
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-March.</p><p>The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 35% frequency. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 24%.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/EUR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>EUR</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Canada to mid-March. </p><p>The XEC.* variant is still dominant but has declined to 30%.</p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant is challenging at around 25%, probably overhauling the JN.1.* + DeFLuQE variants.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Canada" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Canada</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.</p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant growth resumed, up to around 54%.</p><p>The XEC.* variant has declined to around 18%.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/USA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>USA</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late March.</p><p>DeFLuQE variants continue to dominate at around 40-60%</p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant bubbled up to 22%, before falling back in more recent samples.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/NZ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NZ</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/DeFLuQE" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>DeFLuQE</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to mid-March.</p><p>XEC.* continues to dominate, although fairly flat at around 50-60%. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant reached 16%, but then slumped to finish around 10%.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Australia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Australia</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://a.gup.pe/u/auscovid19" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>auscovid19</span></a></span> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late March.</p><p>Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant resumed to around 38%, with the XEC.* variant declining to 29%. </p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Global" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Global</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Betty C. Jung<p>April 11, 2025.
Monitoring Variant Proportions 3/30/2025 - 4/12/2025
{https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions}
LP8.1 55% => 64% ⬆️
<a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23XEC" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#XEC</a> 21% => 15% ⬇️
LB1.3.1 3% => 2% ⬇️
MC 4% = 4%
LT7 4% = 4%</p>
Mike Honey<p>With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.</p><p>The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 XFH and (new) XFJ. </p><p>I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. There are more recent samples available, but the frequency analysis becomes increasingly distorted due to low volumes and patchy coverage.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_7_2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_7_2</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_9" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_9</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/NB_1_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NB_1_8_1</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XFH" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XFH</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XFJ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XFJ</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-March.</p><p>The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 32% frequency. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 22%.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/EUR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>EUR</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late-March.</p><p>The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it is generally declining to around 50% frequency. </p><p>Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant seemed to accelerate in the recent samples, to around 28%. </p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/UK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>UK</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Canada to mid-March. Further samples been back-filled from Ontario, for a more complete picture.</p><p>The XEC.* variant is still dominant but has declined to 34%.</p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant is challenging at around 24%, probably overhauling the JN.1.* + DeFLuQE variants.</p><p>There might be some recent rebound in the FLuQE and FLiRT variants, as unfettered variant evolution continues.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Canada" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Canada</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-March.</p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant growth might be wobbling a bit, at around 47%.</p><p>The XEC.* variant has declined to around 21%.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/USA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>USA</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to mid-March.</p><p>XEC.* continues to dominate, although fairly flat at around 50-60%. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 17%, challenging the DeFLuQE variants as the new heir-apparent. It’s growth trajectory is quite slow.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Australia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Australia</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://a.gup.pe/u/auscovid19" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>auscovid19</span></a></span> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid- March.</p><p>Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant seemed to plateau at around 34%, with the XEC.* variant declining to 30%. Recent sample sizes are smaller so this might not be representative.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/Global" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Global</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
Betty C. Jung<p>April 4, 2025.
Monitoring Variant Proportions 3/16/2025 - 3/29/2025
{https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions}
LP8.1 47% => 55% ⬆️
<a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23XEC" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#XEC</a> 26% => 21% ⬇️
KP3 5% => 1% ⬇️
MC 4% = 4%
LT7 4% = 4%</p>
SchreibeEinfach {DECT 7170}<p>Die neue Corona-Variante heißt XEC. Sie ist jetzt am meisten in Deutschland verbreitet. Der Impfstoff, den es gerade gibt, hilft nur teilweise. Er wurde nicht extra für diese Variante gemacht. Einen neuen Impfstoff extra für XEC gibt es noch nicht.<br><a href="https://23.social/tags/Corona" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Corona</span></a> <a href="https://23.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://23.social/tags/EinfacheSprache" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>EinfacheSprache</span></a></p>
Mike Honey<p>With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.</p><p>The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 and XFH. </p><p>I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_7_2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_7_2</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LF_7_9" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LF_7_9</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/NB_1_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NB_1_8_1</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XFH" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XFH</span></a> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early March.</p><p>The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it has declined to around 31% frequency. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant grew to around 23%.</p><p>Note the recent sample volumes are very low, so this might not be a representative picture.</p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/EUR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>EUR</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a> <br>🧵</p>
Mike Honey<p>Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to early March.</p><p>The XEC.* variant remains dominant, but it is generally declining to around 50% frequency. </p><p>The LP.8.1.* variant is slowly growing, at around 15%. </p><p><a href="https://aus.social/tags/COVID19" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>COVID19</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/UK" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>UK</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/XEC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>XEC</span></a> <a href="https://aus.social/tags/LP_8_1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>LP_8_1</span></a><br>🧵</p>
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