FR: "#GenZ laut Expertin 'massiv unter Druck': Das bewegt junge Menschen nach der #Bundestagswahl."
https://www.fr.de/panorama/genz-laut-expertin-massiv-unter-druck-das-bewegt-junge-menschen-nach-der-bundestagswahl-93592203.html

Friedrich Merz says that he will work with the SPD to change the election laws after 23 constituency winners are unable to take a seat. 18 of those 23 are from the CDU/CSU.

The rule was put in place after the last election in response to a Bundestag that was larger than at any point since reunification, with 137 overhang and balance seats needed to ensure proportionality. If yesterday's election had been contested under the old system, 53 overhang and balance seats would have been required.

23 candidates who won the most first-votes in their constituencies will not be able to take their seats, because there are not enough second-votes for their respective parties in their respective states.

19,3 % Faschisten #FCKAfD ist einfach zu viel im #LandkreisKassel

#Kassel als Großstadt ist ja eigenständig und daher sind es die ländlichen Gebiete von #Nordhessen.

Verandering? Hé, opletten NOS!!! Het zijn gristendemocraten! Die veranderen nooit! #Bundestagwahl2025 https://nos.nl/artikel/2557096-duitse-kiezer-stemt-voor-verandering-vraag-is-of-het-midden-dat-kan-leveren

A silver lining of the #Bundestagwahl2025 is both the #FDP and #BSW being out of the Bundestag. Good riddance.

Here are the final seat figures, with all 299 constituencies declared.

The Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD looks like the only credible coalition option if the anti-AfD "firewall" is to be maintained.

With 23 constituencies to declare, this is where I'm going to call it tonight.

Though the BSW is currently above 5%, I don't think they will finish there, as most of the constituencies still outstanding are West German and it's in East Germany where they've done well.

The "Grand Coalition" is the only realistic coalition coming out of this election. Friedrich Merz says he wants it done by Easter. We'll see if that can happen.

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 00:00 CET:

234 down, 65 to go, and the "Grand Coalition" is looking more and more likely as more and more results come in.

The AfD has topped the poll in all five states in the former East Germany.

But they've not managed to finish on top in any former West German state, while in Berlin, they're all the way back in fifth place.

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:30 CET:

We have two-thirds of the results in now, and it still looks like a two-party coalition is the most likely outcome.

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:00 CET:

With more than half of constituencies now declared, it looks like a two-party Grand Coalition will remain the most likely possibility.

The FDP looks like it's not going to make it into the Bundestag, and I think the BSW will finish just short as well (though that one is less certain).

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:30 CET:

It still looks like the Union and the SPD could form a two-party coalition, but there are still a lot of results to come in and plenty of time for the FDP or BSW to hit 5%.

30 constituencies declared so far in Bavaria, all of which have been won by the CSU.

But it's unlikely that all 30 of them will be able to take their seats, as there won't be enough second votes to cover all of those mandates. In this case, those mandate winners who received the fewest votes will be denied a seat in the Bundestag.

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:00 CET:

45 constituencies have now declared, and the swings are not far off from the exit poll.

The AfD and the BSW are outperforming in East Germany so far, with the SPD collapsing even harder in the East than in the West.

Three constituencies declared in East Germany, and the AfD so far has double the vote share of the CDU.

However, those seats are in Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD topped the poll last time. We don't have anything yet from Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, or East Berlin, where the AfD support was less.

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 21:30 CET:

Results have been declared in 18 constituencies, of which 11 are in Bavaria.

The SPD has so far lost three constituency seats, two to the CDU and one to the AfD.

AfD doing a bit better than the exit poll so far, but still a lot more results to be declared.

Three constituencies declared now (all in Bavaria), and the swings we're seeing are not a million miles out from the initial exit poll.

But I'll still be very interested in how this varies state by state, and in particular between the old West Germany vs East Germany.

The first result is in, with the CSU holding Hof in Bavaria.

But under the new system, there's no guarantee that the winning candidate will be able to take their seat if the CSU doesn't win enough second votes in Bavaria to cover all of the mandates that they win in the state.